Only one top-six place up for grabs in Scottish Premiership?

"It's the team who finds a bit of consistency that might just nick that last spot for top six."

Derek McInnes believes his Kilmarnock side are capable of doing just that, but is he correct to think there is only one remaining place up for grabs in the top half of the Scottish Premiership table?

With five matches remaining before the league split, 10th-placed Kilmarnock are nine points behind Dundee United in fifth.

Hibernian are on the same 40-point mark as United, while Aberdeen sit on 41, which just happens to be the joint-lowest tally for third place at this stage of the season since the turn of the century.

While the arithmetic is possible, how likely is a slump from one or more of those clubs in tandem with a sudden surge from those in the bottom half?

Aberdeen have already endured one dramatic downturn in form, picking up a mere four points from a possible 42 between 23 November and 1 February.

The bleeding stopped with back-to-back wins over Dundee and Kilmarnock before Tuesday's thumping away to runaway leaders Celtic.

United, who travel to Pittodrie on Sunday, have had a dip too, losing six of their past eight league outings.

Hibs, on the other hand, are undefeated in 12 Premiership games and have just beaten Celtic and United. On 7 December, they were rock bottom, so those with ground to make up can look to Easter Road for inspiration.

Next up for Hibs is a home derby with Hearts, which brings us to the team currently occupying sixth place.

Like their Edinburgh rivals, the Tynecastle side have recovered from an abysmal start to the season and have lost just one league match in 2025.

On Wednesday, Hearts came from behind to beat St Mirren, which moved them into the top half for the first time since the opening weekend.

They too have momentum, but something will have to give in the derby, as is the case at Pittodrie.

Hearts are on 36 points, two ahead of St Mirren and Motherwell, with Ross County on 32, just in front of Kilmarnock.

At the moment, Hearts have the target on their backs, but who is best placed to take advantage of any drop-off from those in third to sixth?

County were motoring until the midweek loss away to bottom side St Johnstone. They have three home matches before the split, including Aberdeen and United.

St Mirren take on the Dingwall side in the 33rd round of fixtures and face four others in the bottom half after hosting Celtic this weekend.

Motherwell go to Ibrox on Saturday after new boss Michael Wimmer snapped a six-game losing streak in his second outing. They also face away days in Aberdeen and Kilmarnock and end this five-game sequence at home to Hearts.

And then we return to McInnes and his mission. Kilmarnock go to Celtic on 12 April, so to be in with a chance of emulating last year's top-six finish by then they must shrug off the disappointment of surrendering a 2-0 lead over Rangers and improve on the worst away record in the division, with trips to Ross County and St Mirren to come.

Our friends at Opta have been analysing the data and it is bad news for the chasing pack.

Using betting market odds and rankings based on historical and recent performances, they predict the current order of top six will not change before the split.

The Opta model considers the strength of opponents by using these match outcome probabilities and simulates the remaining fixtures thousands of times.