Is Welsh Labour turning away from Keir Starmer?

Is Welsh Labour facing a turning point as we approach a year to go until the Senedd election?

Feelings behind the scenes that UK Labour does not get the fight that the party in Wales will face at the ballot box are starting to spill over.

Whether they spill over into 'clear red water' - a phrase coined at the start of the century to describe how the Welsh party differentiated itself from its Westminster colleagues - remains to be seen.

The First Minister, Eluned Morgan, told the Senedd on Tuesday that she will be making a speech next week to outline her position "more clearly" on the UK Labour government's welfare reforms – a controversial issue in Wales, where claimant levels are high.

We do not know how far she will go, or whether she will dip her toe into other areas.

She has plenty to choose from, with decisions made at Westminster affecting steel, welfare, rail funding, crown estate and National Insurance all proving controversial and very current issues.

If she was minded to a year to go until an election, which takes place on 7 May 2026, seems as good a time as any for the first minister to deal with Westminster decisions which she worries might cost Welsh voters and cost her votes.

Some Labour MSs have already made their feelings clear on welfare reform. A minister – Jane Hutt – said that she had "strongly" complained about the "adverse impact" of the Westminster decision not to scrap the two-child limit for certain benefits.

The first minister herself has made a veiled objection to comments from her Labour colleague, Welsh secretary Jo Stevens, that she had welcomed the reforms.

On Tuesday in the Senedd Morgan made a statement on steel funding, and whether Port Talbot would miss out on its share of £2.5bn set aside for steel by the UK government because the money will end up in Scunthorpe instead.

Over Easter the UK government passed an emergency law to keep Scunthorpe's blast furnaces firing because the plant was threatened with closure.

Morgan has written to the business secretary in London urging him to make sure Wales gets a substantial share of that £2.5bn because of worries it will be used in Scunthorpe rather than for longer term steel development.

Labour backbenchers in Cardiff Bay are also aware of what is at stake.

David Rees - whose Aberavon constituency is home to the Port Talbot works - called for a "fair and just transition" and spoke of the anger and disillusionment of workers in the town that the UK government had kept Scunthorpe's blast furnaces going but not theirs.

John Griffiths, whose seat of Newport East includes the Llanwern steelworks, shared his views of Wales getting what it should be due.

When Eluned Morgan took over as Welsh Labour leader last year a couple of her colleagues suggested to me that she might need a "row" – concocted or otherwise - with UK Labour to bolster her position.

When she makes her speech next week, will that time have come?

For opposition parties none of this is likely to go far enough, whatever Morgan ends up saying.

On steel on Tuesday, the Liberal Democrats alleged that Welsh workers were being treated as second-class citizens, the Welsh Conservatives complained of a "completely different attitude" to Welsh steel and Plaid Cymru accused UK Labour of taking Welsh voters for granted.

This all adds to similar criticisms they have made that two Labour governments are not working best for Wales – the opposite of what Labour trumpeted during last year's general election campaign.

If Morgan does sharpen up her language and criticism of UK Labour's approach, there would still be a risk for her.

If she still does not get what she wants – especially with big decisions looming from the chancellor in the spending review in June – then where does she go from there?